Seasoned veteran in the world of gambling writing
Seasoned veteran in the world of gambling writing
As little as ten years ago, almost nobody placed a wager on any political event. Now, betting on the outcomes of elections is far more popular, and as a result, you might be looking for the best politics odds.
Even if it’s the first time you’ve bet on politics, you’re going to want to do it at the best politics odds possible. You could visit each operator looking for the latest political betting odds, or you could instead visit a site that points you in the right direction as they have already done all of the legwork for you.
If you are one of the many people dipping your toe into political betting odds for the first time and have never looked that deeply into how it all works, you might be asking yourself why you should be comparing the best politics odds at all?
In reality, the odds on every event in both the political and sporting arena will vary from operator to operator, and change according to so many factors, something that will be covered in greater depth later on. Any betting odds comparison will give you a list of results that will change as the election draws closer and the news coverage casts a stronger spotlight on the candidates involved. Because of these variations, you may be able to secure your preferred bet at a much better price than you may have done by simply placing your wager at the first operator you come across.
While checking out all of the political betting odds individually might not seem worth it for a single wager, having a source to point you in the direction of where the best odds can be found is far quicker and can boost your potential profits for the sake of a few clicks.
If you are new to political betting or have not placed a bet online before because sports aren’t your thing, there are some important reasons why you should do this online rather than just walking into your local offline betting outlet.
First of all, due to legislation in your state, the offline betting outlet might not be that local and involve a trip that you wouldn’t normally make, taking up time you spend doing something else. Next, because it is only really one or two elections that catch the public imagination, that outlet might not be taking political bets at all, or at best will only have limited markets and political betting odds for you to bet on.
Taking the online option, however, presents plenty more opportunities. Many reliable ‘big name’ operators who will offer a range of bets and markets for the political arena, will have developed apps you can use on your Android or Apple device.
This can turn a long trip into just a few minutes on your phone, as well as having an overview of all the political betting odds across several different operators and the offers they make available to their customers.
A hundred years ago betting on outcomes of the Presidential election was one of the biggest gambling events in the country. It wasn’t just money that was wagered, with goods and forfeits that left losers quite literally ‘eating crow’.
Betting would take place at various places around the country. One famous example in 1916, in the closely contested race between Woodrow Wilson and Charles Evans Hughes, you could place bets at the bigger hotels or in the financial district.
As a result, the latest political betting odds were published daily in newspapers, giving a stronger indication of who would win rather than any of the political commentators of the day. Even back then, where the money was going (in that particular election the modern-day equivalent of over $200M) was a better predictive tool than what was being said.
In fact, between 1884 and 1940, when betting on major political events seemed to drop off the radar, the markets were right in 14 out of 15 Presidential elections.
Since political betting has started to receive online attention, the odds for major events like the Presidential elections will often form part of an operator’s sportsbook area. It is not always visible, but when it is, you’ll see the politics odds displayed alongside the boxing betting odds, the cricket odds comparison, the F1 betting odds and the best golf odds today.
Politics betting odds are displayed in three different formats, which you can usually switch between using a toggle on the top right-hand corner of an operator’s website. The three formats that most operators use for displaying their odds in are decimal, fractional and American.
Decimal odds are also known as European odds and you may see them listed as such with some operators. The simple numerical value means that they are generally regarded as the simplest to work with, and if you are a novice bettor, you might want to start with this format.
The premise is quite simple, in that the larger the number, the more remote the chance is of that candidate winning. For example, for much of the 2016 election campaign, Hilary Clinton was very much the favorite and would have had political betting odds at a much lower decimal value than Donald Trump.
That number would have shown how much you’ll win for each dollar you wager on Hilary winning. The thing to remember here is it will show the total you will be paid out if you win, not how much profit you have made on that wager.
Fractional odds are also called traditional odds, and are favored mainly in the UK although you may have seen or heard them associated with horse racing. These are considered more complicated than decimal odds, for two reasons. Firstly they can be written in two different ways although the meaning is the same – i.e. 2/1 is the same as 2-1 – (and you will see them written both ways on sportsbooks that use fractional odds).
Secondly, it is not always as straightforward as 2/1, when you’d win $2 for every $1 you bet on a successful wager. When you see prices such as 15/8 it is not so quick to calculate which is why decimal odds are normally considered the easiest to understand at a glance.
American odds are probably the ones you will be most familiar with, so the explanation will be much briefer than for the other types of odds.
American odds are usually displayed by default on the majority of sportsbooks you will look around while you are searching for the latest political betting odds. Luckily, the favorite is easy to spot as their odds will be preceded with a minus sign and a number which is a simple representation of how much you would have to wager to win $100.
Underdogs, meanwhile, are usually represented by a + sign – which works quite well in major political events like the Presidential election.
Calculating the best politics odds is more difficult than the casual observer might think. As politics varies greatly from a sporting event – even though it is compared in some quarters to a boxing match, the way the latest political betting odds are calculated initially is different to others you might have seen before.
In a Presidential election, the favorite is normally the current President, as very few Presidents do not get elected for a second term or the President’s preferred successor. This will change if the administration has had a particularly bad run, or the President’s personal approval rating is very low.
However, in the run-up to election day, this can change due to the live TV debates that have been seen to sway public opinion overnight. This was particularly evident in the 2020 election, along with the frequent social media output which looked to many observers to polarize opinion.
With unpredictable events like this happening almost daily, the political betting odds for the next president in 2020 changed frequently. It is how different operators respond to these factors, or how quick they are on the uptake of a change, that causes the discrepancies in odds between different operators.
Although the exact circumstances around the 2020 campaigns are unlikely to be repeated, it did provide an example that unpredictable situations provide the opportunity to place a ‘value’ bet, where the political betting odds seem more favorable than are generally perceived by other operators.
Situations like this leaves the door open for a savvy bettor to ‘Arb’ the betting odds. Arbing (or arbitrage to use the correct term) takes advantage of the political betting odds discrepancies detailed above to place value bets on opposite outcomes of the same event, so that a small percentage profit is inevitable.
When you have a straight head-to-head contest like a presidential election, while arbitrage is possible, the margins involved are likely to be very small. Therefore, only those with a bigger bank will be able to make this strategy worthwhile, and this is probably not one for the novice bettor.
It is situations like this, then, were getting the best possible political betting odds for your preferred bet is crucial. Having a source where the operators with the best possible political betting odds can be seen quickly and accessed with the press of a button is key to making this happen, and why having the apps for recommended and reliable operators on your mobile device is a ‘must have’ requirement.
This also makes betting in the right market is key to making the most profit. With the margins in odds so small on who is likely to win, you might choose to look at other markets such as the margin of victory.
With presidential elections only taking place every four years, and many of the markets laying dormant for at least half of the intervening period, the exact markets for the next election are still an evolving factor. So, bets on the final Electoral College tally may be a market to explore if the latest political betting odds on the possible winner do not seem attractive enough.
Again, having a source where operators with the best odds in these markets are easy to see can increase your profits if your wager is successful. By thinking outside the box and using the resources available, there can be many alternatives to what might look from the outside to be a two-horse race.
As we have already established, political betting cannot be judged the same way that you might consider the outcome of a sporting event. With the markets dormant for long periods of time, and some operators steering clear of political betting altogether, using your usual operator does seem like a very poor tactic.
Being able to see at a glance the best operators for political betting across the available markets would seem like a better solution, and one that gives you more choice and a greater opportunity for increased profits from a successful wager.
As mentioned above, despite being one of the most important events for the nation, the betting markets for elections are nowhere near as widespread as the ones for the NFL or NBA. This means that many offline operators might not have the markets you are looking for or may be neglecting the elections altogether. Online you will have access to many operators and all of the markets and political betting odds they have on offer.
While much of the focus is on the race for the White House, the build-up to the final race can present many other opportunities to place an informed wager. There is the selection process for the candidate to challenge the President, or the race to win the nomination to replace him at the end of a second term.
While these markets are not guaranteed to be covered by all operators, a source that points you in the direction of the operators who do, and the best odds available can be an invaluable tool.
Even with the best odds at your fingertips, a profit is not guaranteed. With the huge number of factors involved the oddsmakers are only responding to their ‘best guess’ of any given situation. As proved in 2016 when Hilary Clinton was considered the favourite until close to election day, they do not always get it right.
Betting while the campaign is in progress, and right up to when the result is announced, is where the ability to compare odds for your preferred markets is essential. Because of the movement of odds while the event is in progress, and the inability or reluctance of some operators to respond quickly enough, the opportunity to place a value bet on your preferred outcome is greatly increased
As mentioned before, politics stands apart from sports wagering because of the amount of time between major elections and the number of worldwide factors that can influence the movement of the odds. Once you know this you will also know that finding the best odds is absolutely crucial.
Checking out each operator individually can take time. Firstly, they might not have any politics markets, something you may not discover before you’ve wasted time looking all around the site. Secondly, the odds and markets may vary across operators and by the time you find the best odds, the prices may have moved on. Last of all, having a roster of recommended operators from a reliable source means that you can make a wager confident in the fact that the operator will pay out if your candidate wins.
Not all operators take wagers on elections, and those that do can have a limited number of markets. As a result, it would take too much time to visit each operator individually to research your preferred wager. To find the best politics odds it is usually best to use a website that has already done the legwork and presents you with a shortlist of reliable operators – GamblingGuy.
In politics betting, the margins between candidates in an election can be very tight. For this reason, other markets are usually explored like who will take place in the final race, the results of primaries, or even the margin of victory of the election.
Many operators only take an interest in the major elections like the race for the White House. As this only happens every four years, often these markets will be withdrawn or left dormant for much of the intervening time. Rather than checking back yourself, it can be better to look through our online gambling guides.
Betting on political outcomes only has very few similarities to betting in other arenas due to the number of external factors that can affect the odds and the result. But, if you have a source to point you in the direction of the operators with the best odds, the legwork is already done for you and you can concentrate on placing an informed wager on the outcome.
You can find opinions on who is likely to be in the White House in January 2025 by looking online or switching on almost any news channel. However, as the ‘smart’ money got the election result right 14 out of 15 times in the past, checking out the latest political betting odds might also give you an insight into who will be the next President