2022 NFL regular season: Tips for betting & Best odds

Michael Arinze from the Action Network has shared some tips on how to bet on NFL’s top regular season in 2022.

While NFL season is still around six weeks away, bettors can already take advantage of the many varieties of season-long wagers along with the teams they can bet on.

FanDuel is able to get the futures up early, and Arinze wrote that the one thing that particularly catches his attention is about selecting which team will finish the season with the best regular record. The odds are apparently not identical to Super Bowl futures.

Arinze cites the Green Bay Packers as an example. The odds are +700 to finish with the best record, while also has +1200 to win the Super Bowl.

Arinze looked back at previous NFL seasons, which date back to 1978 and included at least a 16-game schedule. He found 16 occasions in which the team with the best record also won the Super Bowl.

Since then, there have been more than 10 instances where multiple teams also finished with the best record.

Picking the right teams

Arinze wrote that the good thing about the regular-season record prop is that the lower teams can be eliminated right away. While there is a possibility for some of the teams to achieve more than they usually do and possibly reach the playoffs, it is likely they lack the consistency to win week in and week out at a high rate.

Occasionally, some teams may appear out of nowhere and finish with the best record. One example is in 2019 when the Baltimore Ravens won 14-2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers under Lamar Jackson. It was his second professional season.

Another example is in 2017 when Case Keenum led the Minnesota Vikings to a tie for the best record after Sam Bradford’s knee injury ended his season. The Vikings won 13-3 for the playoff against the Chicago Bears.

Arinze said it is more reasonable to pick teams with good players on both sides of football instead of relying heavily on the quarterback. He also recommended avoiding highly competitive divisions such as the AFC West and NFC West.

Teams to bet on

The Buffalo Bills were some of the best teams in the NFL last year and have an odd of +450. Arinze said he likes their balance on both sides of the ball and considered the team would have been in the Super Bowl instead of the Cincinnati Bengals if the former forced the Kansas City Chiefs to return the ball late in the fourth quarter of the round playoffs.

Arinze also said the Ravens are worth +1400 if they don’t have another back-to-back injury in years.

However, there has been some flak regarding Jackson’s performance as of late, despite he has been improving his quarterback plays. One defense coordinator told the Athletics that Jackson has been inconsistent in throwing the ball while acknowledging his uniqueness as a football player.

“He’s so unique as an athlete and he’s really a good football player, but I don’t (care) if he wins the league MVP 12 times, I don’t think he’ll ever be a 1 as a quarterback. He’ll be a 1 as a football player, but not as a quarterback.

“So many games come down to two-minute, and that is why they have a hard time advancing even when they are good on defense. Playoffs are tight. You have to be able to throw the ball, and he is just so inconsistent throwing the ball. It is hit or miss,” one of the coaches said when Mike Sando from The Athletic spoke to 50 NFL coaches and executives.

Other than the Bills and the Ravens, Arinze also said the Miami Dolphins could be worth +5000, considering their improvements in the offseason.