NHL 2023 Draft Lottery: Lowest-ranked teams compete for Connor Bedard

With the NHL season coming to a close in April, the lowest-ranked teams vie for a chance to select center Connor Bedard in the approaching draft lottery.

Bedard, a center, is listed as a top prospect in the 2023 NHL Draft due to his exceptional performance on the ice. He has broken records and won MVP titles at the young age of 17. He is among only seven players in NHL history to receive “exceptional status,” which allowed him to play in the Canadian Hockey League at just 15 years old.

On top of that, his speed, accuracy and control on the rink have earned him the title of “generational talent” from numerous sports publications.

Teams unqualified for the playoffs can draw first in the draft selection process, though the draft lottery can significantly shift the order. After 2022, the draft lottery rules stipulate that 11 out of 16 teams that miss playoffs may get the chance to draft the first pick.

Allowing lower-ranked teams to draft their first choice has helped balance the scales in team performance, giving some of the season’s lowest-ranked teams an opportunity to select great new talent.

This NHL season has proven notable for the Boston Bruins’ stunning rank lead early on, though the contenders for lowest-ranked NHL teams will remain open for the next three weeks.

The Columbus Blue Jackets and the San Jose Sharks are tied for 53 points, the lowest standing in the current season. However, the Chicago Blackhawks and the Anaheim Ducks aren’t far ahead of the lowest ranking, with 54 and 56 points, respectively.

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Race to the bottom

The lowest-ranked NHL team in the entire season will have more than a 25 percent chance of drafting the first selection.

With his team currently tied for the lowest standing, Blue Jackets manager Jarmo Kekäläinen has described his keen interest in winning the lottery. However, there’s still a chance that his team may not get the first pick.

“Look, there’s a 25.5 percent chance for the team to finish last, but it’s still a 74.5 percent chance that you don’t get it. That’s much greater than 25.5. But we’ll see where it takes us,” Kekäläinen said.

“Wherever we end up in the standings, we get the odds the league gave, and then we hope for the best of luck.”

History points to a pattern of numerous lowest-ranked teams gaining the first NHL Draft selections, even though there have been many instances otherwise.

Echoing this year’s downturn, the Blue Jackets lost the lottery to the Edmonton Oilers in 2012, despite being the lowest-ranked team of the season.

The lowest-ranked teams have been able to win the lottery in the past two years, thanks to the slightly increased odds.

Regardless of probabilities, other low-ranking teams haven’t been keen on the draft lottery. Anaheim Ducks coach, Dallas Eakins, expressed determination to improve the rankings irrespective of current standings, suggesting that the lottery does little for a team’s future success.

“We want to have development and progress every night. We’re not the Boston Bruins right now. That’s why we have to play a perfect game to be in the game,” Eakins said. “Finishing at the very bottom guarantees you nothing. I’ve seen teams lose the lottery and end up with the best player in the draft.”

Eakins’ assessment rings true to the history of the NHL and its previous draft selections. In 2015, the Buffalo Sabres lost the draft lottery to the Oilers.

Despite this, they would still gain center Jack Eichel from the draft selections after the Oilers picked up center Connor McDavid. Eichel would later win three All-Star Games for the Sabres in 2018, 2019 and 2020, solidifying his status in the team and the NHL.